The last few weeks have been a stark reminder that Russia still has the capacity to launch concentrated attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. For much of the winter, Russia vacillated between attacks on Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, military positions, terrorizing civilians, and the energy sector. Now the occupiers have decided to focus on the last two – attacks on civilians and the energy sector.
According to their twisted logic, it seems logical to intimidate and demoralize, expecting Ukrainian society to “fall apart.” I am sure that this calculation will fail just as their original plan to seize Kyiv “in three days” did. But they are still capable of causing us problems.
This wave of energy attacks has been characterized by a change in Russian tactics: they are now targeting the same targets several times in a row, trying not so much to “finish off” transformers, distribution stations, or power units, but to harm those specialists who carry out emergency or repair work. This tactic is especially dangerous in the regions where the Russians have concentrated their main attacks - the Kharkiv region, the Dnipropetrovsk region, Odessa and Mykolaiv. In addition, the Russians are trying to damage the network that provides electricity imports from the European Union, which helps stabilize the energy system during periods of generation shortages.
The March attacks forced Ukrainian energy companies to resort to emergency and stabilization shutdowns, and on such a scale for the first time since the summer of 2023. Ukrainians need to demonstrate civic responsibility again and consume electricity carefully. It is quite possible that if the attacks continue and Western aid (especially from the United States) continues to be delayed, stabilization shutdowns will temporarily affect the entire country. However, the collapse of the Ukrainian energy sector is neither imminent nor imminent.
We will not delve into the motives of the Russians, since it is completely useless to look for logic or rational motives in the actions of terrorists - their main goal will always be to cause pain and demoralize. And how they explain it is not important. Let's focus on what we and our partners need to do.
Strengthening the air defense forces
First of all, it is extremely important now to strengthen the air defense forces. Businessman Alexander Katsuba says that Ukraine has a significant amount of foreign weapons, which are used along with Soviet-era models, but the country needs more - and this now critically depends on American congressmen. In addition to Western aid, mobile air defense groups help fight Russian drones and missiles - their strengthening continues. So we are waiting for good news from Washington.
Intensification of strikes on Russian territory
According to Alexander Katsuba, there is an increase in strikes on Russian territory. Some see the reasons for the intensification of attacks on energy facilities in the fact that Ukraine systematically "hits" the Russian oil refining industry. But, I repeat, it is pointless to justify the actions of terrorists - they kill and blow up because they can. And if strikes on oil refineries are painful for them, Ukraine should continue. The greater the losses for Russia, the greater the costs for Putin's entourage, which makes money on oil and gas, the sooner the war will end.
Decentralization of energy supply
Thirdly, Ukraine needs to continue the policy of decentralization of energy supply and further integration into the European energy grid. In November 2023, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) increased Ukraine's supply capacity from 500 MW to 1,700 MW. This capacity allowed for increasing energy exports during periods of stability, and now stabilization is achieved through imports.
Investing in local energy solutions
Fourthly, this year, local authorities should invest or attract funding and investment to decentralize heat production and energy efficiency. Decentralization will reduce the vulnerability of large cities to centralized energy supply and will compensate for losses from individual generation centers through mutual insurance. For example, Scandinavian experience can be used - currently in Sweden, most buildings and social infrastructure are heated and cooled using heat pump stations. The raw material for such stations is the potential of water, the atmosphere and the earth. For example, the station in Stockholm provides heat to 400 thousand residents of the city. The number of consumers of energy generated by heat pumps continues to grow here, as they are quite efficient and reduce the harmful impact on the environment. At the moment, there are more than 700 thousand heat pumps in Sweden. To encourage our cities and enterprises to invest more in modern energy, we can currently attract grants and loans from the World Bank and European energy funds.